India Retirement Simulator

Your inputs

Today's rupees throughout. Inflation is applied automatically each year.

Age & Timeline

Current age

3525 yrs of accumulation

Retirement age

Plan until age

8525 yrs of retirement

Money

Corpus at retirement (₹ lakhs)

₹1.5 Cr

All savings and investments on retirement day

Monthly lifestyle spend (₹)

₹60,000/month

Lifestyle only — healthcare modelled separately below

Other monthly income (₹)

₹0/month

Pension, rent, NPS annuity, part-time work

Portfolio, Tax & Costs

Equity allocation (%)

30%rest in debt/FD

Income tax slab

Applied to debt income

Fund expense ratio

Annual drag on returns

Healthcare budget (₹/month, today's value)

₹3,000/month

Grows at 10%/yr. Major shocks (₹3L–₹25L) also modelled at 0.4%/yr probability.

Behavioural penalty

Annual return drag from emotional decisions — selling in crashes, chasing trends. SEBI data: average retail underperforms index by 1.5–3%/yr.

~3 seconds · Full model: tax + expenses + healthcare + behaviour

Configure your inputs and click "Run 500 Simulations" →

What this model captures — and what it still misses

Complete transparency about model accuracy

✓ Benchmarked vs freefincal research — pre-tax case matches within 1%

WHAT IS NOW MODELLED CORRECTLY

Sensex total return (price + dividends) lognormal AR(1) · Stochastic inflation (AR(1), clusters like real CPI) · LTCG tax 12.5% above ₹1.25L · Debt income at your slab rate · Fund expense drag · Healthcare at 10%/yr + major shocks · Behavioural penalty option · Sequence of returns risk · 500-path Monte Carlo

WHAT IS STILL NOT MODELLED

Rupee depreciation vs imported goods and medicines · Variable spending (most retirees spend less in later years) · Tax on FD interest vs debt MF simplified · Inflation variability across expense categories (medical 10%, food 6%, fuel 8%) · Return correlation between equity and debt in crises · NPS/PPF/SCSS specific tax treatment · Family financial obligations (weddings, medical emergencies for children)

The India SWR is 3%, not 4%

The US 4% rule used 2% inflation. India runs at 6%. At 20% slab with typical fund expenses, even 3.6% gross SWR leaves only ~70–80% success probability. Aim for 3% gross SWR — the full model here shows you exactly what your number means.

Expenses eat more than you think

Use the expense ratio selector. Compare 0.1% (index fund) vs 1.5% (active fund). At ₹1.5 Cr corpus over 25 years, the difference in terminal corpus is roughly ₹60–80 lakh. Index funds are not just cheaper — they are structurally better for retirement.

The behavioural slider is honest

SEBI's 2023 study found 89% of F&O traders lose money. Retail mutual fund investors underperform index funds by 1.5–2.5%/yr due to bad timing. The "average retail" setting (−1.5%) is not pessimistic — it is typical. The "perfect discipline" setting is aspirational.

Healthcare needs separate planning

This model includes ₹3,000/month growing at 10%/yr. But one ICU admission or cancer treatment costs ₹20–50L and is not in this model's shock range. Buy ₹1 Cr+ health insurance. Do not rely on corpus as your healthcare fund.

Other income beats higher corpus

Try adding ₹15,000/month income vs increasing corpus by ₹25L. The income wins — it reduces your net withdrawal rate permanently and the benefit compounds every year. Rental income, NPS annuity, or even a small consulting practice changes retirement mathematics dramatically.

Review every 3 years

A retirement plan that is never revised is fragile. If your corpus is 15% ahead of projection at age 63 — spend more. If behind — cut temporarily. This flexibility cannot be modelled but is your most powerful real-world hedge against all the gaps this model still has.

Complete model specification (v4): Equity returns: lognormal AR(1) with φ=0.12, log-μ=0.12457/yr, log-σ=0.27972/yr (48yr Sensex total return 1979–2024, excluding 1992 Harshad Mehta manipulation year). Implied CAGR=13.3%, arithmetic mean=17.8%. Benchmark validation: 1Cr corpus / ₹30k/mo / 30yr / 60% equity / pre-tax / no expenses = 85.5% success rate in this model — matches freefincal's independently computed 85–90%. Debt: lognormal log-μ=0.07231/yr, log-σ=0.01490/yr. Inflation: stochastic AR(1) with φ=0.30, mean=6.0%, σ=2.4% (25yr India CPI average 2000–2024), clamped 2%–15%. LTCG tax: 12.5% on equity gains above ₹1.25L/yr; 60% of annual equity gain assumed LTCG-eligible (rest short-term or exempt). Debt tax: slab rate on gross debt income. Expenses: equity expense deducted from equity return; 50% rate applied to debt. Healthcare: base monthly cost (user input) escalated at 10%/yr; major event (₹3L–₹25L uniform) at 0.4%/yr probability (~9.5% cumulative over 25yr). Behavioural drag: subtracted from equity return annually (0%–3% user choice). Withdrawals: inflation-adjusted using mean 6% (not stochastic path) for stability.

Known remaining gaps (in decreasing impact order): (1) Variable spending profile (most retirees reduce spending after age 75) — not modelled, makes tool conservative. (2) Rupee depreciation for imported goods — not modelled. (3) Stochastic inflation used in return simulation but fixed-mean used for withdrawals — minor inconsistency. (4) Debt MF vs FD tax treatment simplified. (5) 500 simulations = ±3–4pp confidence interval on success rate. Net assessment: this model is likely within 5–8 percentage points of a fully rigorous actuarial calculation for most common scenarios. Use it for directional planning and relative comparisons, not as a precise prediction.